Educational Data Mining as a Predictive Strategy to Improve Performance and Reduce Dropout in Distance Education – UNED Costa Rica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22458/caes.v17i1.6582Keywords:
data mining, distance education, higher education, predictive analysis, educational technologyAbstract
This research at UNED analyzes the potential of Educational Data Mining (EDM) to predict performance and reduce dropout rates in distance education. By applying predictive techniques to the Introduction to Computing course, significantly increased passing rates and reduction in failures was achieved. Tools such as ORANGE were evaluated for their ease of use and potential for personalized interventions. The results confirm that EDM strengthens evidence-based pedagogical decision-making, supports formative accompaniment, and fosters continuous improvement. The study also emphasizes the importance of training faculty in data analysis and recommends extending EDM implementation in other courses to consolidate a student-centered educational culture.
References
Al-Omar, K. (2018). Evaluating the usability and learnability of the Blackboard LMS using SUS and data mining. En Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Computing Methodology and Communication (ICCMC) (pp. 388-392). IEEE. Evaluating the Usability and Learnability of the "Blackboard" LMS Using SUS and Data Mining | Request PDF
Angeioplastis, A., Aliprantis, J., Konstantakis, M. & Tsimpiris, A. (2025). Predicting student performance and enhancing learning outcomes: A data-driven approach using educational data mining techniques. Computers, 14(3), 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/computers14030083
Arizmendi, C. J., Bernacki, M. L., Raković, M., Plumley, R. D., Urban, C. J., Panter, A. T., Greene, J. A. & Gates, K. M. (2023). Predicting student outcomes using digital logs of learning behaviors: Review, current standards, and suggestions for future work. Behavior Research Methods, 55(6), 3026-3054. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-022-01939-9
Calderón-Valenzuela, J., Payihuanca-Mamani, K. & Bedregal-Alpaca, N. (2022). Educational data mining to identify the patterns of use made by the university professors of the Moodle platform. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 13(6), 321-328. https://doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2022.0130641
Cornejo Sifuentes, M. S. G., Vega Pérez, L. G., Naranjo Cantabrana, M. G., Osúa Acosta, I. I. F., Ávila Santana, F. A. & Sotomayor Fierro, M. de los Ángeles. (2023). Modelo Predictivo de la Deserción Escolar en Educación Superior: una Aproximación desde la Minería de Datos Utilizando la Metodología CRISP-DM. Ciencia Latina Revista Científica Multidisciplinar, 7(5), 7797-7812. https://doi.org/10.37811/cl_rcm.v7i5.8363
Dutt, A., Ismail, M. A. & Herawan, T. (2017). A systematic review on educational data mining. IEEE Access, 5, 15991-16005. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2017.2654247
Escobar-Terán, H., Alcívar-Saltos, M., Márquez de la Plata, C. & Escobar-Terán, C. (2017). Implementación de minería de datos en la gestión académica de las instituciones de educación superior. Didasc@lia: Didáctica y Educación, 7(3), 207-218.
Gushchima, O. M. & Ochepovsky, A. V. (2020). Data mining of students’ behavior in e-learning system. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1553(1), 012027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1553/1/012027
Hämäläinen, W. & Vinni, M. (2010). Classifiers for educational data mining. In Handbook of educational data mining (pp. 57-74). CRC Press.
Jaramillo, A. & Paz-Arias, H. (2015). Aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos para determinar las interacciones de los estudiantes en un entorno virtual de aprendizaje. Revista Tecnológica ESPOL-RTE, (28), 75-81.
Jiménez, G. & Alvarado, A. (2010). Aplicación de técnicas de minería de datos en la predicción del fracaso escolar en entornos educativos. Revista Iberoamericana de Educación, 52(5), 1-10.
Luna, J. M., Castro, C. & Romero, C. (2017). MDM tool: a data mining framework integrated into Moodle. Computer Applications in Engineering Education, 25(1), 90-102. https://doi.org/10.1002/cae.21782
Mancilla-Vela, G., Leal-Gatica, P., Sánchez-Ortiz, A. & Vidal-Silva, C. (2020). Factores asociados al éxito de los estudiantes en modalidad de aprendizaje en línea: un análisis en minería de datos. Formación Universitaria, 13(6), 21-28. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-50062020000600023
Nagendhra Rao, Y. S. & Chen, C. J. (2024). Bibliometric insights into data mining in education research: a decade in review. Contemporary Educational Technology, 16(3), Article e14333. https://doi.org/10.30935/cedtech/14333
Nayak, P., Vaheed, S., Gupta, S. & Mohan, N. (2023). Predicting students’ academic performance by mining the educational data through machine learning-based classification model. Education and Information Technologies, 28, 14611-14637. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10639-023-11637-2
Peña-Ayala, A. (2014). Educational data mining: a survey and a data mining-based analysis of recent works. Expert Systems with Applications, 41(4), 1432-1462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.042
Pérez Niño, J., Gualdrón Guerrero, J. & Barrera Oliveros, C. (2024). Inteligencia artificial y minería de datos educativos para la predicción de la deserción en educación superior. Revista de Investigación Educativa Latinoamericana, 12(2), 45-62.
Preidys, S. & Sakalauskas, L. (2010). Analysis of students’ study activities in virtual learning environments using data mining methods. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16(1), 94-108. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2010.06
Romero, C. & Ventura, S. (2020). Educational data mining and learning analytics: an updated survey. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 10(3), e1355. https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1355
Romero, C., Ventura, S., Pechenizkiy, M. & Baker, R. S. J. d. (2010). Handbook of educational data mining. CRC Press.
Roslan, M. H. B. & Chen, C. J. (2021). Educational data mining for student performance prediction: a systematic literature review (2015-2021). International Journal of Emerging Technologies in Learning (iJET), 16(5), 168-184. https://doi.org/10.3991/ijet.v17i05.27685
Sana, F., Siddiqui, M. F. & Arain, Q. A. (2019). Student performance prediction using data mining techniques: a case study of Mehran University. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 10(8), 252-259. https://doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2019.0100834
Slater, S., Joksimovic, S., Kovanovic, V., Baker, R. & Gasevic, D. (2017). Tools for educational data mining: A review. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 42(1), 85-106. https://doi.org/10.3102/1076998616666808
Sri Radhe Shyam, J., Kumar, A., Goyal, S. & Arya, K. K. (2017). Data mining in education with virtual learning environment data. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT), 5(2), 1-5.
Universidad Estatal a Distancia. (2024). Datos de matrícula y rendimiento académico en la asignatura Introducción a la Computación (2023-2024). Escuela de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Revista Electrónica Calidad en la Educación Superior

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Esta revista provee acceso libre inmediato a su contenido bajo el principio de que hacer disponible gratuitamente la investigación al publico, lo cual fomenta un mayor intercambio de conocimiento global.

